My Predictions (and I will probably change my mind often!)
Posted on May 20th, 2006 by Simon Chen
1. Search is all but 5% solved. And the Database of Intentions is very real.
2. Blogging is the future.
3. The mobile device is critical to the future of search.
4. You Inc! on the internet.
5. Commercial TV in its current state is doomed.
6. Businesses that wont make it - Blockbuster Video, Print Directory businesses (all gone within 3-5 years).
7. Click fraud is a MUCH bigger problem than the search companies want to admit. The current legal battles and relatively small settlements are just the tip of the iceberg.
8. In 3 years time, you’ll look back and say “Gee, remember when Google was just a search company…”. The Google and Yahoo! portals are just beginning.
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May 20th, 2006 at 3:15 am
Numbers 2, 5 and 6 is why i grabbed the domain names
whothemedia.com
youthemedia.com
whodamedia.com
youdamedia.com
Great Blog Mate!
Paul
July 12th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Just a thought on prediction 5 - Commercial TV in its current state is doomed.
Like China investing in Africa to create it’s own share of oil reserves, could it be also true Commercial TV will ’sink its claws’ further into existing low-income nations and create a stronghold for itself? It’s still cheaper and easier to buy a tv and plug it in than go online.
Africa’s number 1 media is radio.
What’s your prediction for low-income nations and regions (and there’s a lot of them).
Recently subscribed to the blog and loving it,
Nick
July 12th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Nick, welcome. Gee, thats a tough question. I havent given it much thought to be honest. Do you count China in this mix? It WAS a low income nation. Now, more people in China qualify for an Amex card than in the US. I reckon one of the biggest challenges the Chinese government is facing is how do they hold back (ie regulate and censor) the internet from an ever curious and wealth accummulating population. May as well try and hold back the tide.
I still think the web - and it may be mobile web, will win in nations like Africa. It just has to. TV, in its existing state, has a limited future. It will go the same way as fixed line telephones - wireless networks leap frogged them years ago.
July 13th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Hi Simon, you are totally-on-the-ball.
Mobile device access for developing nations is the key.